From The Sunday Times (UK)
December 2, 2007
Israelis hit Syrian 'nuclear bomb plant'
Uzi Mahnaimi in Tel Aviv and Michael Sheridan in Seoul
ISRAEL'S top-secret air raid on Syria in September destroyed a bomb factory
assembling warheads fuelled by North Korean plutonium, a leading Israeli
nuclear expert has told The Sunday Times.
Professor Uzi Even of Tel Aviv University was one of the founders of the
Israeli nuclear reactor at Dimona, the source of the Jewish state's
undeclared nuclear arsenal.
"I suspect that it was a plant for processing plutonium, namely, a factory
for assembling the bomb," he said. "I think the DPRK [Democratic People's
Republic of Korea] transferred to Syria weapons-grade plutonium in raw form,
that is nuggets of easily transported metal in protective cans. I think the
shaping and casting of the plutonium was supposed to be in Syria."
All governments concerned - even the regime in Damascus - have tried to
maintain complete secrecy about the raid.
They apparently fear that forcing a confrontation on the issue could spark a
war between Israel and Syria, end the Middle East peace talks and wreck
America's extremely complex negotiations to disarm North Korea of its
nuclear weapons.
The political stakes could hardly be higher. Plutonium is the element which
fuelled the American atomic bomb that destroyed the Japanese city of
Nagasaki on August 9, 1945.
Critics in the United States say proof that North Korea supplied such
nuclear weapons material to Syria, a state technically at war with Israel,
would shatter congressional confidence in the Bush administration's
diplomatic policy.
>From beneath the veil of military censorship, western commentators have
formed a consensus that the target was a nuclear reactor under construction.
But Even said that purely from scientific observation, he had reached a
different conclusion - that it was a nuclear bomb factory, posing a more
immediate danger to Israel. He said that satellite photos of the site, taken
before the Israeli strike on September 6, showed no sign of the cooling
towers and chimneys characteristic of nuclear reactors.
Syria's haste after the attack to bury the site under tons of soil suggested
that hundreds of square yards were contaminated and there were fears of
radiation, the professor added.
Since then the Syrians have sealed up the location, levelled the site and
diverted curious journalists to a place that had not been attacked by
Israel.
The professor's theory fits with authoritative technical evidence about
North Korea's nuclear weapons programme. The North Koreans are able to
produce weapons-grade plutonium, which is electro-refined, alloyed and cast
into shapes ready to be machined to fit into a warhead, according to a team
of distinguished American nuclear weapons scientists who visited the
country's laboratories.
One of those scientists, Siegfried Hecker, was allowed to hold a sample and
was told that it was "good bomb grade plutonium", because it had a very low
content of plutonium240, the isotope which reduces the overall quality of
the material.
Assembly of a Nagasaki-type bomb involves mating a plutonium core with a
uranium wrap and inserting a small quantity of polonium and beryllium to
initiate the chain reaction.
"Plutonium is highly dangerous material," explained the Israeli professor.
"It is easily oxidised in air unless protective measures are taken. The
oxide is easily dispersed as dust in air when machining plutonium to create
the 'pit' [a hollow sphere in many nuclear weapons] and thus can be inhaled,
causing a fatality in minute quantities.
"Plutonium pellets are handled and machined exclusively in a large array of
'glove boxes', to protect the technicians and their environment. That is why
you need a relatively large containment building and cannot assemble a
nuclear weapon in your garage - unless you are suicidal of course."
The debris from a destructive raid on a weapons-building facility could
therefore contain toxic radioactive waste. But the main danger for Syria
would be the telltale exposure of the elements to surveillance and detection
by America. This would explain the cover-up at the site.
North Korea, for its part, has more than enough plutonium to sell some of
its stock to Syria.
The same team of visiting US scientists estimated that by late 2006 the
nation had made 40-50kg (88-100lb) of the material. Between six and eight
kilograms are needed for a weapon.
For the US and its allies the Syrian connection raises the deeply worrying
possibility that North Korea has succeeded in building what the US
scientists called "a sophisticated design with smaller dimensions and mass
so as to fit onto a . . . medium-range missile".
That puzzle was complicated when North Korea announced that it had tested
its first nuclear bomb on October 9 last year. The yield of the blast was
small - less than a 20th of the Nagasaki bomb - suggesting to some
scientists that the device was sophisticated and small while others believed
the North Koreans had simply not made a very good bomb.
Professor Even believes the North Koreans have not yet perfected small
warheads. "The mechanical dimensioning at this stage is extremely demanding
(less than 0.01mm). So is the casting of the explosives around the plutonium
core and the initiation of the implosion," he said.
The question is under urgent study by nations who might one day be targets
of a North Korean device sold to Syria or Iran. Iran is known to have
financed missile and weapons deals between North Korea and Syria, causing
concern to Israel and the US. One day after the Israeli attack, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, the president of Iran, sent his nephew with a personal letter
to Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian leader.
The professor's theory of a clear and present danger that Damascus would get
the bomb may be the only credible explanation why Israel carried out a
military strike against Syria and risked an all-out conflict.
Indeed on September 6 Israel was ready for war with Syria. Israeli sources
said its military chiefs assumed Syria would launch a retaliatory attack,
but no reprisal came.
Meanwhile, President Bush has authorised his chief negotiator, Christopher
Hill, to go on talking to North Korea in the search for a peaceful solution.
Hill will visit Pyongyang this week to pursue negotiations after
international technicians got to work on disabling the reactor at Yongbyon,
the source of North Korea's plutonium.
The North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il is supposed to make a full declaration
of his nuclear programmes by December 31. The US says that must include
information on his weapons deals with Syria and Iran.
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