May 26 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers jumped in May by the most in six years, fueling speculation the economy will recover later this year.
The Conference Boards sentiment index surged to 54.9, higher than forecast, according to figures from the New York- based research group today. A report from S&P/Case-Shiller showed home prices continued to plunge.
Stocks climbed for the first time in five days on speculation a lifting of the gloom surrounding the worst recession in half a century may spur consumers, who account for 70 percent of the economy, to spend. Still, rising unemployment and falling real estate values underscore that it will take time to establish a sustained rebound.
What is driving consumer confidence and where are people seeing positive trends?
They live here. I have never seen so much shopping in my life. I went to Target today and with 6 open registers every one of them had a line. All the lots are full of cars. Its like all of a sudden everyone started buying again. Good.
Also a friend of mine manages a discount department store in Queens, NY. Says he is hiring back cashiers etc because traffic in the store has drastically improved.
Real Estate is coming out of its coma as well. I started at a new agency here in Richmond 2 weeks ago. Can't do anything until my license is transferred from NJ...but this woman that started with the company the same day as me has already written two contracts!
What is driving consumer confidence and where are people seeing positive trends?
************************************
Nobody really knows what drives "consumer confidence".. but, in this case, at least in the analyses I've heard/read today, is that it is maybe irrational, but, once it starts to happen, people spend more (even if just a little), and that drives demand up. At the end of the day, it becomes an improvement.
One analyst I listened to today summed it up this way, "People are realizing that it may be less bad than they thought, therefore, that is a 'positive' to the economy".
Home prices are still sliding in most parts of the country... unemployment will probably hit 10% .. I'd guess, that in this economic world, "perception" may be everything.
Home prices are still sliding in most parts of the country... unemployment will probably hit 10% .. I'd guess, that in this economic world, "perception" may be everything.
The home prices sliding means that people are getting a fair deal rather than under water mortgages. The prices at the various markets are lower because the retailer needs to turn his inventory into cash. People are taking advantage of good bargains.
But is it a good sign that the recession is turning the corner?
The coming of HDTV has forced many people to buy boxes or new TVs. The mixture of gasoline and Ethanol may eventually ruin a lot of cars. The cap and trade will send energy prices soaring. Universal health care will drive the cost of living higher. There will be rampant inflation and the country will be in debt.
Even before these things take effect we are estimating a 1.8 trillion deficit.We cannot and will not spend ourselves into prosperity.
True that spending causes inventories to drop and causes more demand. That creates more jobs. But the good jobs are going overseas. People will not invest in the US Manufacdturing industgries unless they can make profits. The liberals are against profits; therefore, the future is dark for at least four more years.
The liberals are against profits; therefore, the future is dark for at least four more years.
Where do you come up with this nonsense? And with homes, what did you mean when you said people are getting a fair deal instead of an under water mortgage? You dont START OUT with a house being below the mortgage value.
Twisted logic, Poetse. Tell me why "liberals" are against profit.
Well they are spending in my store.. I can't say we are kicking ass and taking numbers. But we have the most steady figures out of all the stores that reopened. We are pulling in about 18-20k on the average for the week. We are making our 10% payroll and plus some..So I can't say that's not good! It is good just to make that 10% every week. The funny part is everyone has a comment when they come up to the register about the economy. But they have a pile of shoes worth $125-$175! But it's pratical buying I see rather than in the past when they just purchased for the hell out it..We aren't doing any trendy lines either. Just basics and that is making many people happy.
He opened a 5th store last week and is making a huge mistake IMO.. We were pulling in $125,000 a week with 4 stores and now we only pulled in $103,000 with the 5th opened up. He is racking the stores that are opened of inventory to fill the 5th.. Not a good sign and he needs to slow down! The 6th is opening up in 2 weeks and on to the 7th. But his fall merchandise is bought and paid for. So that is a positive thing..COD still so at least he isn't making bills. He is back in business and he is already the largest buyer of Minnetonka.So he might be doing something correct?
The malls here are also packed with peps. And the lines were long on Monday. Again bargain shopping..Retailers have to be taking a little hit with profits. They are being forced to sell at lower prices. But we have not one single item on sale! He just knows how to get the deals.
Where do you come up with this nonsense? And with homes, what did you mean when you said people are getting a fair deal instead of an under water mortgage? You dont START OUT with a house being below the mortgage value.
True, Sable. But the fact is tht those homes that became under wzter are now revalued. Therefore, the prices have reached a fair value.
Twisted logic, Poetse. Tell me why "liberals" are against profit.
Notice Exxon and the bil outs. These are given to people who deserve it. High taxes on the private sectopr, but Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae receive their bonuses.
This message has been edited by Poetse12 on May 27, 2009 8:22 AM
The economy will vary with both the section of the country and the business entity in which you are engaged. some businesses are working overtime while others are falling apartr.
Ammunition is running 24/7 (figuratively) trying to keep up with orders. The prioce is high when you can get ammunition.
But peopple are not buying cars because they fer the company will go bankrupt and thaey will not be able to get parts and servicfes in the future..
Both of these industries have jobs that are influenced by t6heir success or failure.
And when you see people buying basics, you can note they are generally buying "store brands" thereby saving money.
Good to see yo0ur perceptivness, Piglet. You obviously knew allof those suggestions that I sent. But it is good to know you do have a jopb.
Piglet: You are evidently working again. As Martha would say "That's a good thing".
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"We are all equal, but we definitely are not the same"
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's good that I am working and out and about. It's not a good thing when you see the same mistakes being made and get yourself all kinds of aggita over it. You can tell them and of course they agree but that is to your face. They continue on doing what they want. I guess I get so excited because we all (those of us who came back) put alot into this company. We put our lives on hold and held out on other offers. Plus took 20-30% pay cuts some of us. All to make a go of this. Hell I think I was making more on unemployment! He is doing well money wise. But to fast way to fast. He doesn't want to give up on these deal the landlords are offering! They are giving him in some cases a years free rent. Hell our landlord gave him $150,000 cash to buy goods and free rent for a year! Just to have his store in the strip mall filled. The LL are the ones hurting and they are offering up big deals...
My friend who owns a store that was landmarked my Circuit City. Just got her rent reduced by over 65%! Her lease was made so that if the major store left and stopped the flow of traffic the rents would be reduced. So she is now passing it on to the customers!
