Few days away from the Polling now....and this is the analysis of Enga Regional Candidates.
1. Hon. Ipatas
He is no doubt POPULAR. he does not need introduction. all engans know him. whether knowing one is good or bad is a different issue. He still remains popular. But is it hard to tell where exactly he is collecting votes. He used to enjoy wide support, and in most cases he receives blocked votes. But in this election, it is hard to tell if this will reoccur. In Wapenamanda, Kandep,Laigaip/Porgera...he not that popular. He lost his votes in these areas when he worked against fellow Engas like R. Rimbao, P. Kakarya and D. Polye in other national issues.
In his own turf [Wabag district], he does not seem to do well. I wish he could, but sadly he does not seem to do well. there are two equally rich and powerful candidates cheap away his support in central and upper wabag. the vocal one amongst them is Minapi, and Lorma Korakan - both equally rich and influential. and in the lower wabag, a student candidate [Elvis wamir Toke] is choking Ipatas.
2. Talita/Minapi/Toke/Lorma
With Ipatas' wings being irreparably clipped - other candidates are having a field day. The four equally hot candidates are:
(a). Sandy Talita: a Leader in his own right, with many years of experience in the resource industry. He hails from the Lower Lai region of Wapenamanda. His base vote is along the lower-lai basin that stretches to Kompiam. Since is he endorsed by "the party" man [Polye], he is expected to collect more than 50% of the votes Polye collects in Kandep. With these areas being his support votes, he has a wide appeal.....even collecting votes from within IRELYA - Ipatas' own living room! and that should be worrying for anyone.
(b). Minapi seems to have a dual purpose in this election. One, to ensure that Ipatas looses. Two, to replace him. But i would n ot be wrong if i said, the former reason is becoming more apparent than the later. the other candidates a 'quite' but Minapi is pumping in resource left, right, and centered, all aimed at making sure that Gove Ipatas looses this time. As Wabag vote is divided, he is sure to collect as good as Ipatas, Toke and Lorma. But if someone really hits he pig on the know [Ipatas], it would be because Minapi actually "encroaching and litfing" up the pig!
(c). Although Toke is not as powerful and influential as the other 4 candidates, is seems to be doing quite well. He is blocking off the populous Yakan clan. Since the Yakan clan shares borders with Wapenamanda and Kombiam, there is a "waimir" fever in Enga. There is rumour that the Wapendamanda votes and R. RImbao's votes along minaba are courting the young student. If true, he might turn out to be the black horse. also, the Kandepens are divided cos Polye's own son is looting for his fellow student [against his dates endorsement of Talita]. along with Talita, he seems to be enjoying a wide support in Kompiam and Porgera.
(d). Lorma: Rich and powerful, yet a faithful church-goer and husband of one wife, Kenneth Korakali, is hot for many good reasons. He is rich, just as Minapi, Ipatas and Talita. But unlike them, he is the only one that seems to have a 'good name' - unstained by the political corruption of Enga/PNG. His candidacy is widely received and supported by many. Also, becaue of his abuntant resource, he is actually going into all pockets of Enga and campaigning. he is definitely collecting much of upper wabag votes, and he is dividing with Toke the Ambum votes.........and he is also collecting Kombiam votes. In Laigam along with Torato and Piari, is is collecting a good number of votes there. It is also rumoured that he is collecting a significant number of votes in Porgera, and Paiala area. In Paiyala country of Enga he is diving the votes with Toke. Althouh, Ipatas, Minapi and Talita are making "waves", only Lorma is the "still waters" that run deep.
Here is my conclusion:
****Enga loves money. they allow money to have a sway over their votes. and if they do this time again, It is Talita or Lorma's game.
****Also, in Enga most of the results have been due to malpratice at the counting room. If that repeats again, Ipatas may pull this thing off. [But to repeat this, the current Enga PPC might be a thorn in the Ipatas' flesh]
****If Enga says, we have had enough of the money thing, they may go for the the student [Yakan Toke].