All Chuave, the election according to the analysis below has proved itself. However, should we accept this win accordingly? Please share your views.
Ta,
Analyst.
Top 5 June 5 2012, 7:01 PM
All Chuave requesting me for Top 5, it has taken so long to conclude. It’s been a hard work. As I have alerted you in my last posting, the Candidates were inches above each other. The selection of who has made it into the Top 5 was done through so many interviews, considering Council Wards per LLG (Chuave, Elimbari & Siane Rural LLG), gathering supporters views/comments, Analyzing Money Players, Number of Candidates contesting per wards/LLG and looking at the last election winning Margin. Sincere apology to those of you who waited so long for the update. Below I present to you our Top 5 Candidates for the Chuave Open 2012 National Election.
TOP 5 JUNE 5th 2012
1. Wera Mori (maintained)
2. Johannes Tokua (Pilot)(new inclusion)
3. Philip Khon Digan (new inclusion)
4. Jim Nomane (from 5th place)
5. Michael Dick (from 2nd place)
1. Wera Mori
-A big-name in Chuave Central and Simbu including entire Highlands region
-A leader with the capacity to manage his company well -can do for Chuave too
-Has been playing so much money -people say 'kaikai na givim'
-Had recently dished out K50 000 into Kebai which is made up on Wards 1&2 in Chuave LLG.
-Has been dishing out so much money lately. People from all over chuave have come and go as individuals & in groups to receive.
-His home is right at the Gateway (Whitehouse), hence this puts him at the spot of attraction especially for those who need money.
-He's staging his campaign house at Waramai -formerly Workshop for Kapuo Zero. This is another hot spot he chooses in order to catch those who are from this side of Chuave
-Maintained his number one position among those who played money game this election. Interviewees agreed that Wera is campaigning on only 'one gold bar'. With today’s gold price of 1556USD/Ounce, it is estimated to be around K4000 000 (K1556 =4000US$ X 1000Grams =K4 000 000)
-Like any other intending candidates, he has been on the front line assisting in funeral services, and other community related issues
-Has come to the top of my list regardless of some allegation on the Highlands Highway Rehabilitation Plan. This is a national issue and people in the remote villages and those who do not have access to the media are unaware of this issue so he is the choice for 2012
-Even though he does not have big base vote, he is sure to collect from all over Chuave
-Has an estimate base vote of 600 out of 1500 from Ward 4. Rival Jacob Bi Kai is sure to collect majority of this but still he’s got the 2nd preference.
-His challenge will come from Kumo Peter Launa -once Simbu Governor. Peter said, when he was the Governor, it was Wera Mori who teamed up with Joseph Onguglo to oust him so now is time for payback. However, from the ground work, Peter's Clan (Komogam) of Kamare are fed up with Peter's lies during his term as Governor. Seems that they all moved to Were Mori.
-He is sure to collect Most 2's from Chuave Central which is made up of 13 wards.
-Of course will definitely collect 2 form other Wards with his buying votes strategy
2. Johannes Tokua (Pilot)
-The ground work into each candidates shows Johannes topple every other first time candidates in Chuave.
-Pilot by profession has made into the 2nd place in the race.
-Can talk and convince people.
-Has started his campaign since 2009 June.
-Has Network and supporters all over Chuave
-Has admitted/supported people through funeral services, school fee assistance, supplied school materials since then through his network
-His Front men will never leave him because they are all on his pay roll. Whether they come from Siane or Elimbari, they admitted their 1st preference for him because he's been with them for so long and they have benefited in one way of the other like none other candidate would do for them.
-He hails from Ward 8 Council in Chuave LLG. Has a base vote of 1454.
-Since no candidates contesting from Ward 9 with a population of 900 (Kinugu/Mainamo). The Wards 8&9 combined with full support according to people interviewed. Presumably, 2300+ is a no go zone.
-Contrary to Wera Mori who dish out money into groups/hausline of people, Johannes is paying individuals cash. Those who received from him come as far as Suagawa which is the base vote for Wai Iarume. Why they come? Because they had great leaders like Late David Goro Mai, Late Buckly Iarume & now they don’t want another Late >>>>>???.
-Johannes has also received support from Ward 18 in the Siane LLG once used to be a base vote for Alfred Rongo. Lately Alfred has showed full support for Johannes. This was a payback to a rival candidate for Alfred who never gave him a single chance in the past elections.
-His rival candidate from Ward 8 -Mr Rocky Buno declared to the people that he nominated just to please his endorsing party as a Shadow candidate for Jim Nomane in the PNC led by O'Neil. This disperse all doubts about Ward 8 breakup.
-The tension between Wera Mori & David Mori from Ward 7 in Chuave LLG sees David team up with Johannes. This is because they believe in the same ancestral migration. The two wards have names Gomia 1 & Gomia 2. They claim as 'eagles' having one wing as Gomia 1 and the other as Gomia 2. Johannes is sure to strip away 2nd from Ward 7 (Gomia 1).
-The big duma which has the highest population figures in the Chuave LLG sees 6 candidates putting their hands up. 3 from ward 10 and the other 3 are related families from ward 12. Due to this break up, the people in the middle (Ward 11) withdrew their support for their 6 candidates. The interviewees were frustrated because the candidates did not follow the people's wishes since they have the winning figure compared to last election of 7800 with 35 candidates in 2007. Ward 11 is eying to the MAN from the Valley -Johannes Tokua (Pilot).
-Chuave having 43 candidates nominated -an increase of 8% compared to 2007, the winning margin had dropped to around + or - 5000. With the alarming support in the ground work research, Johannes Tokua (Pilot) is a potential Candidate.
-He’s has to work hard to step into areas he has not set his foot, look into areas he has not set his eyes so he could give a good race to Wera Mori.
3. Philip Khon Digan
-Geologist By Profession who made it into the race at 3rd place
-Unbelievable like Johannes Tokua (Pilot) is another first timer but a man with strong campaign policies
-Has been claiming himself to be an answer to the needs of East/West Elimbari
-He received most of the Support from Both East & West Elimbari. He was the man behind the Goiri Cement Factory Project. His campaign has won the hearts of many people who testified in the interviews conducted so far.
-Since East/West Elimbari lacks basic services, and development has not taken place in this part of Chuave, Philip Khon Digan was tipped to be the next MP for Chuave.
-He has started with a vision and people say he will do the rest
-Philip Khon Digan hails from Wards 5,6&7 in the West Elimbari Rural LLG which also sees Timothy Komane, Alois Toko and Tony Sipa raising their hands. Despite the likely break up, the ground work concluded that Philip will score the most. Why Teimai Timothy dropped? The answer is indigestible however, its consumable. During the Last Election Teimai Timothy who hails from Ward 6 came 2nd place. His people regretted his loss and shifted the blame to a rival candidate and a fight broke which took some lives and properties destroyed. Most of these were from Wards 1, 2 & 3 who were behind Teimai Timothy. But when it comes to the time of 'Brukim Suka' ceremony, Teimai Timothy never showed himself as a leader to lead the people into true peace making. He also did not contribute to the compensations as expected by the people. Now, they turned their back on him and put Philip Khon Digan's Poster on every door of their house.
-To make situations worse, Teimai Timothy rival Tony Sipa were In-Laws and are expected to share votes from their wards. This has diminished his chances and sadly pushed him out of the race.
-Philip has been in the mining field for so many years and has supporters and cronies all over Chuave like other top candidates.
-Since the Cement project is at the Border between Duma and Mam, he has received support from wards 10,11 and 12 as well.
-His Challenge will come from JKB Construction owner Nime Aus. He was tipped second preference from the people interviewed during this analysis.
4. Jim Nomane
-Current MP
-Has made one step up from my last analysis by grabbing Michael Dick from second place and pushed him under his feet. The work into Siane is always a fatigue type.
-Has cronies and Supporters all over chuave but now many candidates from his base votes are raising their hand, however still has the chance to collect 2 & 3
-His the man for O’Neil’s Party in the come 2012 election. He was out of the top 5 but since people are now looking towards the O’Neil government -he made his way back. He will be pushing for free education & health care in the O’Neil party's policy if he make it back to parliament.
-Having seen the benefits of Developments that are currently underway in PNG, O’Neil wants PNC to lead the Government again after 2012 election so they can harvest the blessing of the Land. Hence, Jim has been sweating day and night to maintain his cronies as well as advancing into raw areas. From sources, Jim is Teaming up with Candidates such as David Mori from Chuave LLG. David is hosting his Campaign house at the former Waramai Wholesale –opposite Wera Mori’s. Jim is also teaming up with Rocky Buno from Ward 8 in Chuave LLG. He has also teamed up with couple of Candidates from East/West Elimbari. He is likely to fund their elections so he could claim their 2nd preferences.
-Additionally, Jim has a down-to-earth character which most people interviewed expressed their 'easy to talk to' attitude towards Jim.
-Jim has his office bearers from 2007 till now as the frontlines in this year’s election. He is sure to collect most 2nd through them.
5. Michael Dick
-He has made into the top 5 form nowhere. The ground work into Siane took so long to conclude which most people interviewed had shown their support for Michael Dick
-He has been a big name in Siane as well as Chuave & East/West Elimbari
-Has contested past elections and has supporters and cronies all over chuave
-Siane having the highest Population in Chuave electorate and is made up of 27 wards, he's ward made up of 1/4. He has a solid block vote.
-Having learnt from previous mistakes, he had been putting his foot, hands, eyes and ears where he had never done before especially in Siane wide.
-Among many intending candidates for Siane LLG, he was tipped for 2012.
-His challenge will come from Current sitting Member -Hon Jim Nomane & Former Chuave MP. Mr. Yauwe Riong
-Among the many potential leaders of Siane, Michael Dick was tipped for outstanding leadership at the community level.
-With 17 candidates contesting from the Siane Rural LLG, the chances of Michael Dick has dropped as well as other candidates. The win is likely to come from Chuave or West Elimbari. However, Siane having the biggest population in Chuave and from history have sent MP's into parliament with their last minute decision, Michael dick will be a choice
-The ground work has placed him on 5th place.