Restoring Peace and Prosperity to Macedonia - The Rule of Numbers
By Victor Bivell
The 2001 Albanian insurgency and terrorism in Macedonia - together with
its appeasement by the international community, the one sided
concessions by the Macedonian side in the Ohrid Agreement, and other
national problems such as the slow pace of economic development, have
left many Macedonians around the world pondering the future of
Macedonia, and what they can do to help their homeland.
One of the hardest things for Macedonians to accept is that under the
Ohrid Agreement the long-sought-after ideal of Macedonia as a homeland
for the Macedonians has suffered a setback. Under the new Constitution,
Macedonia is no longer a homeland for the Macedonians in the same way
that Albania is the homeland for the Albanians and Greece the homeland
for Greeks. Commentators have said the Constitutional changes mean that
Macedonian society is no longer based on an "ethnic" model like its
neighbours. Although the international community calls it a "civic"
model, in reality it is a bi-ethnic model: before the Ohrid Agreement
Macedonia was a country of one nation, the Macedonians, now it is a
country of two nations: the Macedonians and the Albanians.
How did the ideal of a homeland for the Macedonians come to suffer this
set back, and what can people of Macedonian background, including those
who live outside of Macedonia, do to help build Macedonia into a secure,
peaceful and prosperous country?
The Answer Is In The Numbers
In the absence of a military victory by the Macedonian military and a
resolute response to the Albanian terrorism by the international
community, the Albanian terrorists were successful in winning political
concessions for the simple reason that the Albanians form a large
minority within Macedonia.
In international minority politics, numbers count. Whether it is right
or wrong, small minorities have small rights and large minorities have
larger rights. Minorities of one to two per cent are everywhere and are
unexceptional. Minorities comprising say around 10 per cent of the
population, such as the Turks in Bulgaria, are large enough to cause
severe international stress. The Albanians in Macedonia, at 22.7 per
cent of the population, are by world standards a very large minority and
this size brings certain rights and privileges not afforded to smaller
minorities.
This does not excuse terrorism nor insurgency, made worse in the case of
the Albanians because they were already a privileged minority by every
Balkan and world standard.
But it does explain, for example, why large minorities are often allowed
official use of their own language while small minorities are not.
This fact of international politics explains why the Albanians in
Macedonia continually exaggerate their numbers, bandying about
percentages of 30 and 40 per cent, without any regard for the most
recent internationally monitored census. It also explains why Greece
continues to swear against all the evidence that it is "98 per cent
Greek", and why it recognizes only a "Muslim" minority, even though the
world knows there are Macedonians, Turks, Albanians, Bulgarians, Vlachs,
Roma and others. It explains why the Greek Government does nothing to
clarify the situation and why it does not have a question on ethnicity
in its census.
As a rule, large minorities are very unpopular with governments and with
majority populations, both of whom see them as representing large
political and social trouble. Worse still is a situation such as that in
Macedonia where there is a large minority yet the majority ethnic
Macedonians, at only 66.7 per cent of the total population, are well
below the level for most ethnic majority populations around the world.
This is an inherently unstable situation. The point can be illustrated
if we look at four multicultural countries: Australia, USA, Canada, and
Fiji.
Australia has become a world leader in multiculturalism for at least two
reasons: because the dominant ethnic group, in this case those of
British descent, comprise about 75 per cent of the population, and
secondly, while there are over 200 minority groups, the largest is only
4.3 per cent of the total population. In this model, no minority is
large enough to constitute a threat to the dominant culture. This is a
formula for long term peace.
In the US, white Americans form the majority at 75.1 per cent of the
population, but among the minorities are two very large ones: the
Hispanics and Latinos who are 12.5 per cent of the people and the
African Americans who are 12.3 per cent.
These are large percentages. However, their respective political force
is diminished because the populations are dispersed throughout the
country. If each group were to compact itself into certain States, their
right to further rights would improve. For example, if enough Hispanics
were to move to say New Mexico, California or Texas where they are
already strong and enough African-Americans move to say Louisiana,
Mississippi or Georgia, so that each group became the majority in its
chosen State or States, then they would gain new rights. Among them, if
they chose to exercise it, would be the right to a referendum on
independence and secession from the US.
This is in fact the situation in Canada, also a multicultural country
with many ethnic groups. Those of French origin comprise about 23 per
cent of the people, but they are a compact group, particularly in Quebec
where 81 per cent of the population have French as their mother tongue.
Already Quebec has had two referendums on independence, both failing by
only a small percentage of votes.
If we take this process one step further and look at Fiji, we see a
country that historically had one dominant group, the Fijians, but
where under British colonialism Indian workers were brought in whose
descendants since the second world war outnumbered the indigenous
Fijians. In 1988 the Indians won the majority of parliamentary seats, a
situation untenable for the indigenous Fijians. In the 14 years since,
there have been three coups d'etat to maintain Fijian rule. After some
population displacement, the current ethnic mix is 50.8 per cent Fijians
and 43.7 per cent Indians.
The Macedonian Model
How does Macedonia fit into this model? The majority Macedonians
comprise 66.7 per cent of the population, the Albanians 22.7 per cent,
and the other minorities are less than 4 per cent each. Furthermore, the
Albanians are compacted into the north west of the country and form the
majority in Tetovo and Gostivar and some smaller localities. This is a
situation conducive to long term political instability, particularly as
current demographics indicate an increase in the proportion of Albanians
and because the Albanians have shown a willingness to use ethnic
cleansing of Macedonians to further compact their community.
The roots of Macedonia's demographic dilemma lie in the influx into
Macedonia of 150,000 Albanians from Kosovo in the 1970s and 80s. Had
this not happened, Albanians would comprise around the 12.5 per cent of
the population as they did in 1961, a large minority but not sufficient
to threaten political stability or Macedonia as the Macedonian homeland.
The converse is that the percentage of ethnic Macedonians has fallen
from 71.2 per cent in 1961 to the current 66.7 per cent. Compare this
with say Slovenia where the Slovenians are 88 per cent of the
population. The Slovenian homeland is secure, and free of ethnic
divisions they have been able to get on with the serious business of
economic development.
Clearly, the Macedonian politicians have been negligent in allowing the
proportion of ethnic Macedonians to fall to such a dangerously low level
and the proportion of ethnic Albanians to rise to such a high level. The
following chart places into an international context just how diluted
has become the ethnic Macedonian population in Macedonia.
Perhaps we should not be surprised that the stability of the country has
now been shaken by terrorism, insurgency and near civil war between the
two groups.
Comparing Ethnic Majorities in Their Homelands
Country Ethnic % of Total Largest % of Total
Majority Population Minority Population
Japan Japanese 99.4 Koreans Albania Albanians 95.0 Greeks 3.0
Armenia Armenians 95.0 Kurds 2.0
Germany Germans 91.5 Turks 2.4
Romania Romanians 89.0 Hungarians 7.1
Croatia Croats 89.6 Serbians 4.5
Slovenia Slovenes 87.8 Croats 2.7
Slovakia Slovaks 85.7 Hungarians 10.7
Taiwan Taiwanese 84.0 Mainland Chinese 14.0
Bulgaria Bulgarian 83.0 Turks 8.5
United Kingdom English 81.5 Scots 9.6
Singapore Chinese 77.0 Malays 14.0
USA White Americans 75.1 Hispanics &
Latinos 12.5
Australia British descent 75.0 Italians 4.3
Thailand Thais 75.0 Chinese 14.0
Sri Lanka Sinhalese 74.0 Tamils 18.0
Macedonia (1961) Macedonians 71.2 Albanians 12.5
Macedonia (1994) Macedonians 66.7 Albanians 22.7
Malaysia Malays 58.0 Chinese 26.0
Belgium Flemings 58.0 Walloons 32.0
Fiji Fijians 50.8 Indians 43.7
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, NSW Government, US State
Department, and various national census agencies
While the majority numbers for Albania and Bulgaria are likely
overstated, they indicate the relative ethnic strength of two of
Macedonia' neighbouring countries.
The international comparison shows that, like Macedonia, many small
countries are homeland states for their ethnic majorities, but unlike
Macedonia they are not threatened by a diminishing majority or rising
minority. The size of the majority is sufficient to secure its homeland.
Countries where this is not so are Fiji, which has suffered extreme
political and social instability, and Malaysia which has had to resort
to numerous affirmative action programs to preserve the majority's
position within its homeland.
Sri Lanka, where the Tamils are 18 per cent of the population, has
suffered many years of civil war between the two ethnic groups.
Also interesting is the situation in Croatia where the Serbians where a
12.5 per cent minority until the recent civil war which saw their
numbers fall to 4.5 per cent.
Belgium is an interesting case where peace between the Dutch speaking
Flemings and French speaking Walloons is maintained by a Federal system
and ethnically based autonomous economic regions.
A country's political and social stability are also affected by how
ethnically assertive or even aggressive is the minority, and by the
attitudes of the majority.
However, as the chart shows, it is a general rule that the presence of a
dominant ethnic majority is a factor for social stability.
The Way Forward
There is a clear need for Macedonia to achieve long term political and
ethnic stability, and the international comparison shows that achieving
these can be assisted by increasing the proportion of the majority
Macedonian population to a level in line with other successful
multicultural societies.
What that level should be is a decision for the Macedonian leadership
and the Macedonian people. It would be interesting indeed to see the
Macedonian people have such a public discussion.
For my own part, I believe a safe level would be a minimum of 75 per
cent of the total population, as this would bring Macedonia in line with
the Australian model, which I believe is world's best practice.
Such a level would deliver many significant benefits. It would:
* Clearly secure Macedonia as the Macedonian homeland
* Help to avoid civil war with the Albanians
* Restore harmony between the ethnic groups
* End forever Macedonian concerns over the Albanians becoming the
majority
* Make it easier for Macedonians to make available high level rights to
the minorities, including the Albanians.
* Provide a dramatic boost to the economy and economic development.
How To Achieve It?
How such an increase is achieved should also be part of the discussion.
For example, it need not be achieved through a reduction in Albanian
numbers, although there exist internationally acceptable options if this
is desired. Rather, it could be achieved relatively quickly through an
influx of ethnic Macedonians from the diaspora.
No precise numbers exist for the size of the Macedonian diaspora, but it
is credibility estimated on the conservative side at between 1.5 to 2
million and on the generous side at 3 to 4 million including those who
have given up or lost their Macedonian consciousness. Certainly there
are sufficient to achieve almost any target. The real problem is
motiving a significant number of them to return to Macedonia.
So far the Macedonian Government has shown no inclination to use
population policy to achieve political stability. Should this attitude
continue, the policy can still be implemented by the Macedonian people,
although it will take longer to achieve.
There are many expatriate Macedonians who are very willing to return,
and many ethnic Macedonians from outside the Republic who would like to
move to Macedonia. It happens continually. Many others would do so with
only the slightest encouragement. Many feel a strong desire to help
their homeland, and some of these may respond to the idea that they can
help Macedonia by simply returning home, by having their feet on the
ground and being a Macedonian in Macedonia.
But there are many others who would like to return but see no future for
themselves in Macedonia, due mainly to the limited employment
opportunities. Ironically, Macedonia's level of economic development
makes it a land of opportunity, and the growth of existing businesses
and the formation of new businesses are areas where returning
Macedonians would have both the ideas and the capital to make a big
impact. There are many successful business people and professionals in
the diaspora who could provide a real economic impetus if they could be
enticed into establishing a business in Macedonia.
In addition, the large influx of Macedonians would immediately boost
demand and therefore employment, enhance the country's pool of capital
and skills, and increase the formation of new businesses.
In this way, if it chooses, the Macedonian diaspora can play a
substantial and even a decisive role in resolving the ongoing political
tension between the Macedonian majority and the Albanian minority, and
also speed up the pace of economic development and reduce the related
social problems of high unemployment and poverty.
This is one way to help bring peace and prosperity to Macedonia and
secure its long term future.
Victor Bivell is an editor and publisher. Earlier articles in this
series are: Discussion Paper - Stabilizing Relations Between Ethnic
Macedonians and Ethnic Albanians in Macedonia
(
http://www.maknews.com/html/articles/bivell.html); and Time to Reclaim
Macedonia (
http://www.maknews.com/html/articles/bivell2.html). He can be
contacted at vbivell@bigpond.net.au
The above article was published in Australian Macedonian Weekly, July 2,
2002
