| CHRISTOFER DELL:THE FORK IN THE ROAD - Part 1May 28 2001 at 1:26 AM
No score for this post | ZAIO (Login ZAIO) |
| By Christopher Dell Chief of Mission, U.S. Office Pristina
This analysis of the situation in the southern Balkans rests upon three considerations. First, the role of the international community has been critical to progress in the region since at least mid-1998, particularly in Kosovo. Second, since June 1999 developments in the region, both within Kosovo and beyond its borders have weakened international commitment to Kosovo. And, third, a failure of political leadership within Kosovar society has contributed directly to the speed at which the current crisis has developed. Moreover, this lack of leadership has given political advantage to extremist elements whose goals and agenda are themselves damaging to Kosovo and its long-term interests. As a result, Kosovo's prospects are today dimmer than at any time since the beginning of the NATO air campaign two years ago.
The progress made in Kosovo over the twenty-two months since the end of the war in June 1999 is a testament to the strength of the partnership developed between the international community and Kosovo. Without a doubt, Kosovo has become a more peaceful and increasingly stable home for the majority of its citizens during this time. While a considerable part of the credit is due to the struggle by Kosovars against the Milosevic regime and its policies,since at least the time of Rambouillet, Kosovars have understood that they cannot achieve their goals without the support of the international community. The intervention of Western diplomacy in the autumn of 1998, followed by NATO's air campaign in the wake of Serb refusal to sign the Rambouillet agreement were the key factors in transforming Kosovo's ten year struggle against Milosevic and forcing the withdrawal of the Serb regime from the region.
The value of this partnership did not end, however, with the end of the war. Since then international intervention has remained the sine qua non of further progress for Kosovo. UN Security Council resolution 1244 is the blue print and the road map for Kosovo's future and a key to its success has been the strong bilateral commitment of both the international community and Kosovars to the course it lays out. Even in the face of dramatic changes in the strategic context, particularly the fall of Milosevic in October last year and the emergence of a new, reform oriented regime in the FRY/Serbia,1244 remains the only real option for Kosovo. Indeed, both 1244 and the large international role in Kosovo are now probably even more essential to the future here in view of the increasing legitimacy with which the world regards the new authorities in Belgrade. It is no exaggeration to say that without the help and support of KFOR and UNMIK, Kosovo' stability would be short-lived, and its future prospects much different. Thus, the presence of KFOR and UNMIK continue to provide the necessary security, stability and resources for re-building Kosovo and creating the conditions for substantial self-government and substantial autonomy as defined by the Security Council resolution.
If the story ended there, all would be well. However, events both within Kosovo and in the region have begun to erode the previously solid international commitment here. While many Kosovars privately lamented the fall of Milosevic as the loss of their "best ally," i.e., the best reason for a continuing international presence in Kosovo, the truth is that this erosion began long before. In fact, it began almost immediately after the end of the NATO air campaign as the Serb civilian population fled or faced revenge attacks from Kosovars. While the initial wave of revenge attacks eventually receded, the sustained, albeit low level pressure maintained on the Serb population since that time has convinced many in the outside world that there is little to distinguish between the behavior of Serbs and Albanians and prompted questioning as to what business the international community had in trying to support one community or another. Put more bluntly, the Albanian population of Kosovo has squandered one of its most valuable political assets, transforming the universal perception that they were victims, into a more murky perception that given the chance they are equally capable of oppressing other ethnic groups.
While a certain amount of softening in international support would in any case have been a natural development as other crises came and other developments clamored for attention and support, events in the region at present have seriously accelerated that process, to the point where doubts are now serious and deep. Stated simply, Kosovo appears to be headed toward a crisis. From the perspective of the U.S. - undeniably Kosovo's greatest advocate - these events are leading to the disintegration of the kind of life that Kosovars claim to have wanted. In fact, from all indications, some people seem ready to exchange almost certain success for a destructive agenda led by individuals who claim to be acting in the name of others, but who in truth are only pursuing their own interests. While it seems unthinkable that the bright future achieved via hard work and adherence to rule-of-law would be replaced by a move backward into hostility and despair,that is the current trajectory.
Why is it left, however, for the international community to make this argument, instead of Kosovo's own leaders? The answer lies in collective failure of leadership here. The United States government, the international community and the vast majority of ethnic Albanians condemn the current violence, and the tactics of extremist Albanian groups in the Presevo Valley and in Macedonia. Every shot fired in Tetovo and the Presevo Valley by ethnic Albanian extremists undermines international support for all ethnic Albanians and for efforts to address their legitimate political grievances. Continued violence will convince the international community that Albanians are incapable of self-government in this region. The American government, NATO, the U.N. Security Council, the European Union, and OSCE seek an end to the armed struggle being carried out by the UCPMB and the National Liberation Army. The silence of Kosovo's leaders in the face of this challenge has been stunning. Rather than take statesmen-like views based on objective analysis of Kosovo's long-term interests and objectives, they have focused on short-term political gain and intra-party political maneuvering, using the crisis in Macedonia as simply another weapon in a political struggle stretching back to Kosovo's own struggles under the Milosevic regime.
This in no small measure reflects the situation inside Macedonia itself, where it has become ever more clear that the principal objective of the NLA is simply to hijack the political policies of Arben Xhaferi and the DPA for itself. As the NLA's spokesmen have made their views known over time, they ever more closely resemble the positions of the DPA. The only difference discernible is that the NLA seems to believe that by using weapons to assault the fragile ethnic balance in Macedonia they earn the right to supplant the elected leaders of the Albanian community. Fortunately, it does not appear that the sparks the NLA has tried to create have caught fire among the Albanians of Macedonia, and, unlike in Kosovo, the clear messages of the legitimate leadership in the Albanian community have contributed to the possibility of an improved political dialogue and a solution to the legitimate demands of the people without resort to ethnic intolerance and civil war.
usinfo.state.gov
source: usinfo
Web posted at: 5/23/2001 5:23:00 AM (GMT-8)
|
| | Author | Reply | ZAIO
(Login ZAIO) | CHISTOFER DELL:THE FORK IN THE ROAD - Part 2No score for this post | May 28 2001, 1:31 AM |
What is at stake? Kosovo has reached a fork in the road and the decisions the people and leaders here take in the coming weeks will define Kosovo's course for the foreseeable future. Not only is the future of international support in the balance, the nature of Kosovo itself could well be determined by what is done - or not done -- in the next few weeks. Will Kosovo become a western democracy in which leaders and led interact in a balanced process of dialogue and discourse leading to decisions, or will it be a society in which a leadership vacuum is increasingly filled by extremists who manipulate the symbols of the nation in order to advance their own interests while posing as patriots and heroes? In facing the first major regional crisis of its post-conflict history, Kosovo will set in place patterns that are likely to dominate its politics for a long time to come. Unfortunately, at this writing the prospects for choosing the right path at this fork in the road are not encouraging. Of course, Kosovo's friends, including the United States, are obliged to share their perceptions with our partners in Kosovo and to signal our concern about developments. Despite repeated attempts to make this message understood, including the recent statement by President Bush himself, there are still many Kosovars who seem to confuse what they want to hear with what is actually being said and done. Therefore look at the facts:
Diplomatic efforts are in effect at the highest levels. The United States fully supports Macedonia in its efforts to defeat violent extremists.President Bush and Secretary Powell have stated this personally, and are cooperating with SRSG Hans Haekkerup and President Trajkovski on measures to defeat insurgents.
West from the Globoccia region to the Albanian border, German-led KFOR guards against infiltration into Macedonia along the Sar Planina border region. KFOR remains vigilant in this area, patrolling the mountains by helicopter. Additionally, there are KFOR ground patrols in the Kosovo lowlands to the north of the Sar mountains.
Multinational Brigade East U.S troops are operating in the area around Debelde with troops in the local villages of Mijak and Becalar. In addition,troops from the Polish, Ukrainians, and Greek Forces control the two main roads into the FYROM at the Blace and Globocica crossing points.
From March 28 that area has been further reinforced by a Multinational Brigade consisting of British, Swedish and Finnish Task Forces. All of these soldiers are tasked to prevent illegal activity on the Kosovo side of the border.
Ground observation posts with high technology surveillance systems patrol check points, and sophisticated KFOR U.S. helicopter gunships continuously monitor the area.
KFOR has recently seized a number of automatic weapons, 10,000 rounds of ammunition, 100 rounds of recoilless rifle ammunition, seven anti tank weapons and 60 mines from rebel forces, and continues to confiscate more materiel.
Since March 5, NATO-led KFOR and the Macedonian Ministry of Defense have maintained surveillance and interdiction operations including "Predator" unmanned aircraft. Results and observations have been shared, and rebel movements are tracked constantly.
In addition, NATO directly assists the FYROM's Ministry of Defense. Up to now, NATO's military assistance package to Macedonia totals approximately $13.5 million.
The position of the international community, in particular NATO and the United States is, therefore, quite clear in both word and deed. So too is the view of most Kosovars - we do not want another war. One is left to wonder then, where is Kosovo's leadership? Why have they failed to heed such clear messages from their international supporters and their own constituents?
Kosovo's leaders must immediately assert their leadership in a united and uncompromising way if they desire to see their homeland achieve self-governance and long-term security. The global community can only work with a Kosovo united for peace.
The facts are self-evident: Revenge and hatred are easy to foment,and attract followers instead of leaders. Restraint and reconciliation, on the other hand, require great strength, courage and force of character. They can only be achieved by those committed in spirit and determined to shape their own destinies. Revenge is a coward's dagger, striking at an opponent's back in fear. Restraint is a sovereign's sword, wielded with honor by the truly powerful. It is designed to protect the rights of those it represents. Kosovo must therefore choose its path wisely. The fate of its people depends on it.
(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov) NNNN
www.usinfo.state.gov
source: usinfo.
| |
| Scoring disabled. You must be logged in to score posts. | |
| | |
|
|
