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In-the-Hunt Futility Stats, Bengals v. Browns

September 9 2011 at 9:19 PM
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Getting back to this futility stat with the aim of comparing the Bungles to other teams. Might as well start with the Brownies considering they're our foe the week. The way I compiled the numbers last time was a little confusing, so I tweaked things a bit and went with a simpler approach.

A few key points before presenting the tables:

- Weeks "in the hunt for a winning season" serves as a rough proxy for playoff contention. And thus for fans' hope and happiness. We ultimately want a championship, right?

- To be in the hunt, a team can be no more than one game below .500 with no more than seven losses.

- During the season, a team can fall out of the hunt and then climb back in.

- An example running won-loss record for five weeks: 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3. This team was in the hunt after Weeks 1, 2, 3, and 5 (total = 4).

- Bye weeks are counted like any other week in the season. For example, the Bungs get a freebie if a bye comes while they're still in it. Why? This is supposed to be about the fans' experience.

- Adjusted "percent weeks in the hunt" throws out the first week, as all teams get an automatic freebie.

- As stated above, I re-did the Bungles compilation from last time.


Here are the Bungles during Mike Brown's exulted and ongoing tenure, 1991-2010:
[linked image]

Now here are the Brownies during the same period:
[linked image]



A few quick comments:

- The Bungles were far worse over the first decade (1991-2000) with an adjusted average of 12% versus 38%.

- The Bungles were actually better over the past decade (2001-2010), 48% v. 38%.

- Overall, across all 20 years, the Bungles naturally sucked more, 30% v. 45%.

- It's kinda nice when your team stays in the hunt for most of the year, no? Let's look at the seasons with at least 80% attained. Brownies: 6 seasons. Bungles: 3 seasons. And the Bungles played three more seasons!

- Throw out the three "good" years, and the Bungles adjusted average is only 18%! Throw out the Brownies three best years and they're still over 30%.


Notes:
Stats compiled from data on pro-football-reference.com.
Previous thread:http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/thread/1299474755/last-1299624433/Another+Futility+Statistic


 
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uscthree
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Clear and Concise

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September 9 2011, 10:06 PM 

Another stellar job by our resident madman statistical genius.

These two charts will be posters in my garage by opening day.

Full credit to Psychostats.

 
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Synonymous Bengal
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Re: Clear and Concise

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September 9 2011, 11:44 PM 

Excellent post! Thanks. Giving me a reason to look forward to Bills week. I've been starting to think that Ralph Wilson is the 2nd worse owner in football, and not just because he votes with the brownHole on the labor agreements. His team really suck, and the Pats dominated that division for a long time.

 
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(Login psychostats)
MikeBrownSucks.com Forum Moderator
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Re: Clear and Concise

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September 10 2011, 10:33 AM 

Hey thanks, you guys! It just documents what we already know, but it's fun to spell it out in big neon letters. Yeah, maybe I'll do this for every opponent during the season. It might be a nice little diversion, as something like a 1-4 Bungles squad will be boring as hell. We're going to have quite the hangover when the 0-16 dream dies.

I'll eventually have all 32 teams done; then it will be interesting to see how the Bungles compare. Can't imagine the paltry 30% mark being challenged.

 
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