Week 4 against the Bills marks the third straight Bengals foe with a great 90's and a lousy 00's. And also like the Broncos and 49ers, the last few years have not been particularly kind. Nevertheless, the down years are not so numerous and not so low when compared to Mikey's boys.
I give Bengals versus Bills over the last 20 years.
- Weeks "in the hunt for a winning season" serves as a rough proxy for playoff contention. And thus for fans' hope and happiness. We ultimately want a championship, right?
- To be in the hunt, a team can be no more than one game below .500 with no more than seven losses.
- During the season, a team can fall out of the hunt and then climb back in.
- An example running won-loss record for five weeks: 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3. This team was in the hunt after Weeks 1, 2, 3, and 5 (total = 4).
- Bye weeks are counted like any other week in the season. For example, the Bungs get a freebie if a bye comes while they're still in it. Why? This is all about the fans' experience. (By the way, there were two byes in '93.)
- Adjusted "percent weeks in the hunt" throws out the first week, as all teams get an automatic freebie.
- The time period covers Mike Brown's ownership on the Cincinnati Bengals franchise, counting complete seasons (1991-2000).
- Tables compiled from data on pro-football-reference.com.
Bengals versus Bills
Bengals (repeat of graph shown in previous posts):
- The Bills have been "in the hunt" about two-thirds of the time over the past 20 years, with an average of 67%. Compare to 30% for the Bengals. (Very similar to the 49ers in the last post.)
- The Bungs have been a tad better over the past ten years, 48% v. 41% (Just like with the 49ers again. Wow, I get to copy-n-paste a lot this time around.) Has Mike Brown been a stronger owner than Ralph Wilson since 2001? Yikes! But maybe that will change this year with the fast start the Bills are having.
- For the first ten years in the cycle (1991-2000), the Bills blew away the Bungs 93% v. 12%. Even worse than the 49ers.
Week 1 Browns: http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/thread/1315628376/In-the-Hunt+Futility+Stats%2C+Bengals+v-+Browns
Week 2 Broncos: http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/thread/1316235434/last-1316245390/In-the-Hunt+Futility+Stats%2C+Bengals+v.+Broncos
Week 3 49ers: http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/thread/1316971735/last-1316989401/In-the-Hunt+Futility+Stats%2C+Bengals+v.+49ers
A Note on the Game
If the Bengals lose like we all expect them to, then they will fall "out of the hunt" this year, likely never to climb back in. That will feel about right, as that will work out to about 19% for 2011 (Three weeks out of 16, after throwing out the first week.)