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In-the-Hunt Futility Stats, Bengals v. Jaguars

October 5 2011 at 9:07 PM
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Week 5 brings up an intriguing question. Over 15 years, can the Bengals be outplayed by an expansion franchise? Yeah, like we should even be surprised.

Here we go -- Bengals versus Jaguars, 1991-2010.


Standard Preamble/Overview

- Weeks "in the hunt for a winning season" serves as a rough proxy for playoff contention. And thus for fans' hopes and happiness. We ultimately want a championship, right?

- To be in the hunt, a team can be no more than one game below .500 with no more than seven losses.

- During the season, a team can fall out of the hunt and then climb back in.

- An example running won-loss record for five weeks: 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3. This team was in the hunt after Weeks 1, 2, 3, and 5 (total = 4).

- Bye weeks are counted like any other week in the season. For example, the Bungs get a freebie if a bye comes while they're still in it. Why? This is all about the fans' experience. (By the way, there were two byes in '93.)

- Adjusted "percent weeks in the hunt" throws out the first week, as all teams get an automatic freebie.

- The time period covers Mike Brown's ownership on the Cincinnati Bengals franchise, counting complete seasons (1991-2000).

- Tables compiled from data on pro-football-reference.com.


Bengals versus Jaguars

Bengals (repeat of graph shown in previous posts):

[linked image]


Jaguars:

[linked image]



Quick Comments

- The Jags sprung into existence in 1995, while Mike Brown was five years into his reign of ineptitude. So we'll break things out in multiple ways as we compare the two franchises.

- The Jags were "in the hunt" 68% of the time (based on adjusted percentage) during their first 15 seasons. For the Bungs during that span it was 35%. As discussed previously, the Bungs are at 30% for the full 20 seasons.

- The Jags were better during the first decade, 68% v. 14% (1995-2000). They were also better during the second decade, 71% v. 48% (2001-2010).

- How many times have the Jags failed to ever be in the hunt? Only twice in 15 seasons. For the Bungs it's four times over the past 15 seasons and seven over the past 20. (Again, this is all based on adjusted percentages that omit Week 1 from every season.) Simply put, the Jags rarely sink as low or as often, even though the Bungs had a 27-year head start in establishing their franchise.

- Wayne Weaver apparently catches flak in Jacksonville, but he would practically be God in Cincinnati.


Previous posts

Week 1 Browns:  http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/thread/1315628376/In-the-Hunt+Futility+Stats%2C+Bengals+v-+Browns

Week 2 Broncos:   http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/thread/1316235434/last-1316245390/In-the-Hunt+Futility+Stats%2C+Bengals+v.+Broncos

Week 3 49ers:   http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/thread/1316971735/last-1316989401/In-the-Hunt+Futility+Stats%2C+Bengals+v.+49ers

Week 4 Bills:   http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/thread/1317510076/last-1317588395/In-the-Hunt+Futility+Stats%2C+Bengals+v.+Bills


A Note on the Game

At 2-2, the Bungs are guaranteed to stay in the hunt through at least this next game (five total weeks and an adjusted 25%). That's already better than 11 of their past 20 seasons. And the Jags have only been worse twice.

 
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ItmightbeJB
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Re: In-the-Hunt Futility Stats, Bengals v. Jaguars

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October 5 2011, 9:42 PM 


Psycho. You have GOT to be the only person I've ever known (sorta) that stayed awake during Statistics class.


 
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Bo Jackson
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Re:

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October 6 2011, 5:06 PM 

These do a great job of gauging how much enjoyment fans have following their team. Nothing is more exciting for a fan than being in it at the end thus keeping the championship dream alive.

As a result, unfortunately, they show that Bengal fans get the least amount of joy following Mikehole's misfits. Who knew Jags, Bills, and other fans of miserable teams had it THAT much better.

Just another thing The Clown is depriving you of.

 
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(Login CIN-C-STAR)
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Re: Re:

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October 6 2011, 6:22 PM 

Spot on BO.

It is amazing to me how much more competitive the Jags have been in just the past decade, when it seems like they've never been relevant to me (this decade of course, I vaguely remember their early success).

Fans don't care even care anymore and they very well might lose their franchise, yet they still have been much more competitive than the Bungs.

Just astounding really. Thanks Psycho.

"We do do, and we do it at a very, very high level," Lewis said.

 
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(Login whit28)
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Flawed

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October 6 2011, 7:10 PM 

This is flawed because the Bengals and Jaguars were in the same division for years. I actually went to a Bengals Jacksonville game in 2000 and the Bengals got shut out 13-0 in the rain. It was the 2000 or 2001 season that was the lowest for me. I believe the Bengals were 0 and 4 and shut out three times.

It was when Akili was getting his chance to start. Its amazing to me the Dillon was still able to get a thousand yards that season. It was the worst team as far as talent Mike Brown ever assembled and that my friends is saying something.

It had to be 2000, I'll have to check, my roommate from college moved to Jacksonville and told me he would get tickets if I came to town.

The highlight of the weekend was I was supposed to get something to eat for all of us and didn't know his girlfriend at the time, now his wife was going. I bought a bag of Cheetos, which we all shared in the car while we waited for it to stop raining before we entered the stadium. I had just graduated college and had no business going to Florida in the first place. I felt bad at the time but look back and laugh now. I'm pretty sure he knew he had a keeper when she took it in stride...lol!

"I will torture him, I will crucify him,...REAL BAd!" - Clubber Lang

 
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OldSchool
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Mark Brunell &Company

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October 6 2011, 7:48 PM 

Must be pretty easy starting out--when your 1st pick is borderline HOF'er LT Tony Boselli. Whomever was drafting for them then was an all-star. If I remember correctly, one of their next picks was decent LG Leon Searcy. With those two guys on the same side of the line, it must have made things very easy for guys like Fred Taylor and Mark Brunell to pass/run through.

Having WRs like Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell probably didn't hurt things either.

Their defenses weren't bad either. Names like Kevin Hardy and Jeff Lageman stand out as well.

That's decent drafting. Mike Brown would never employ somebody like that. That guy was COMPETENT.

http://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/rosters.nsf/Annual/1996-jac



"So he got fired? Big deal. It's happened to the best of us. So he got kicked out of his house by his 400 lb'ed wife?!?!? That's probably better for him anyways."-OldSchooler on ChrisMBHater's absence


    
This message has been edited by oldschoolerfan from IP address 98.208.105.168 on Oct 6, 2011 7:48 PM


 
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Re: Flawed

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October 6 2011, 7:49 PM 

I'm not following you, Whit. The Bungs and Jags once played in the same division -- OK. But how does that make it flawed?

 
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Clarification

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October 6 2011, 8:36 PM 

I'm sorry I didn't really complete my thought. I was kind of joking but was just saying that the Bengals were two easy victories a year for the Jags.

The NFL admitted a couple years later they made a mistake and made it too easy for the Jags and Panthers as expansion teams. I can't remember why, but they did say that at some point.

"I will torture him, I will crucify him,...REAL BAd!" - Clubber Lang

 
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Re: Clarification

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October 6 2011, 8:54 PM 

I see what you're saying. LOL. Good point!

 
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Bungs beat Jags

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October 9 2011, 1:22 PM 

With the win in Jacksonville, the Bungs are 3-2 and are guaranteed to stay in the hunt through Week 8.

Eight weeks in the hunt. That's better than 15 of the past 20 years, folks. Even if the Bungs flop this season -- and there's still plenty of time for that -- it will be their best flop of a season during Mike Brown's reign.

 
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