Week 5 brings up an intriguing question. Over 15 years, can the Bengals be outplayed by an expansion franchise? Yeah, like we should even be surprised.
Here we go -- Bengals versus Jaguars, 1991-2010.
- Weeks "in the hunt for a winning season" serves as a rough proxy for playoff contention. And thus for fans' hopes and happiness. We ultimately want a championship, right?
- To be in the hunt, a team can be no more than one game below .500 with no more than seven losses.
- During the season, a team can fall out of the hunt and then climb back in.
- An example running won-loss record for five weeks: 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3. This team was in the hunt after Weeks 1, 2, 3, and 5 (total = 4).
- Bye weeks are counted like any other week in the season. For example, the Bungs get a freebie if a bye comes while they're still in it. Why? This is all about the fans' experience. (By the way, there were two byes in '93.)
- Adjusted "percent weeks in the hunt" throws out the first week, as all teams get an automatic freebie.
- The time period covers Mike Brown's ownership on the Cincinnati Bengals franchise, counting complete seasons (1991-2000).
- Tables compiled from data on pro-football-reference.com.
Bengals versus Jaguars
Bengals (repeat of graph shown in previous posts):
- The Jags sprung into existence in 1995, while Mike Brown was five years into his reign of ineptitude. So we'll break things out in multiple ways as we compare the two franchises.
- The Jags were "in the hunt" 68% of the time (based on adjusted percentage) during their first 15 seasons. For the Bungs during that span it was 35%. As discussed previously, the Bungs are at 30% for the full 20 seasons.
- The Jags were better during the first decade, 68% v. 14% (1995-2000). They were also better during the second decade, 71% v. 48% (2001-2010).
- How many times have the Jags failed to ever be in the hunt? Only twice in 15 seasons. For the Bungs it's four times over the past 15 seasons and seven over the past 20. (Again, this is all based on adjusted percentages that omit Week 1 from every season.) Simply put, the Jags rarely sink as low or as often, even though the Bungs had a 27-year head start in establishing their franchise.
- Wayne Weaver apparently catches flak in Jacksonville, but he would practically be God in Cincinnati.
Week 1 Browns: http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/thread/1315628376/In-the-Hunt+Futility+Stats%2C+Bengals+v-+Browns
Week 2 Broncos: http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/thread/1316235434/last-1316245390/In-the-Hunt+Futility+Stats%2C+Bengals+v.+Broncos
Week 3 49ers: http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/thread/1316971735/last-1316989401/In-the-Hunt+Futility+Stats%2C+Bengals+v.+49ers
Week 4 Bills: http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/thread/1317510076/last-1317588395/In-the-Hunt+Futility+Stats%2C+Bengals+v.+Bills
A Note on the Game
At 2-2, the Bungs are guaranteed to stay in the hunt through at least this next game (five total weeks and an adjusted 25%). That's already better than 11 of their past 20 seasons. And the Jags have only been worse twice.