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The Dumb Reds are at it again

January 19 2017 at 7:48 AM
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Bungleistic   (Select Login Bungleistic)
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Trade a valuable starting pitcher in Dan Straily who contributed mightily to the rotation last year for potential scrub prospects in pitchers Luis Castillo and Austin Brice, and outfielder Isaiah White.

Luis Castillo: 8-6 with a 2.26 ERA in 26 appearances through 24 starts across 2 levels in the minors last season. Still not a bad ERA but don't expect him to add up to much if recent reds pitching prospect history is any indication.

Austin Brice: 7.07 ERA through 14 innings with the Marlins last year. Dick Williams, tell us again how this guy will help the Reds in the future.

Isaiah White: .214/.306/.301 line last year in SINGLE A. Not double A, not triple A, not the majors, single A. Yeah Dick, that guy shows some real promise doesn't he?

Moves like this is why the Reds organization has become bungs like. No way you should let a decent pitcher like Straily go who showed last year he could be a key piece in the starting rotation for 3 prospects that have shown little to no promise. Dick Williams must be taking notes from Mikey.


    
This message has been edited by Bungleistic from IP address 70.198.136.69 on Jan 19, 2017 7:50 AM


 
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Re: The Dumb Reds are at it again

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January 19 2017, 7:54 PM 

gotta disagree here. Straily is a bit older, coming off a career-year where all the sabremetic stats suggest was very much luck-induced. he was tied for the most dingers allowed in '16. Reds have an abundance of young arms and need to fit Bailey & the up & coming Amir Garrett into the rotation as well. Straily serious regression candidate and the guys they received in return are young, cheap, and controllable for much longer. also, highly regarded. Luis Castilo the guy with a 8-6 record w/ a 2.26 ERA last year in AA has very high upside. FB sits at 96-99, can hit 101. plus slider, good change. Most pundits in the industry love the move for the Reds. Marlins balked at the Reds high asking price last year when Miami inquired after Jose Fernandez died. They changed their mind and decided to pay up.

 
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Re: The Dumb Reds are at it again

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January 21 2017, 10:58 PM 

Straily is an innings eater like Arroyo used to be. He threw almost 200 innings last year and got 14 wins for a dysfunctional team. That's huge in my book. And I admit I don't know what a sabremetric stat even is but the guy is only 28 years old and in the prime of his career.

This flame thrower from the Marlins is a starter. A starter who regularly hits triple digits with his fastball. In other words he's one pitch away from Tommy John surgery. I'd even say he's LIKELY to need it well before he gets to the bigs. As far as Homer Bailey is concerned I'm still not convinced he's ever going to throw another pitch. This guy makes Tyler Eifert look like an iron man.

At some point the Reds have to abandon their quantity over quality mantra and choose proven arms over prospects. This trade is a not so subtle admission that the Reds know they won't be competitive this season either. It looks to me as if this Dick Williams is using his position to play this never ending game of prospect-itis. He reminds me of the goofy Major in the movie "Stripes" who was playing war games on his desk with model tanks and self supplied battle sounds.

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Re: The Dumb Reds are at it again

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January 22 2017, 12:47 PM 

innings-eater? he's never reached 200 IP and last year was his first full year in the bigs at 28... a big stretch to compare him to Arroyo who rattled off 8-9 years straight of w/ 200+ IP. ALSO, #KillTheWin - wins are such a weak judgement on a pitcher. Straily had some of the best run support in the league last year, stranded 81.2% of his runners, among the highest %'s in the league. His career is 70%, league average 72%. REGRESSION. 3.79 ERA, FIP 4.88, xFIP 5.02 (the latter two numbers are closer to what his ERA would have been with a little less luck). He's a flyball pitcher and Billy Hamilton saved his arse. Will those deep flies to go CF in '17? You don't pay up for an innings eater & if you can get 1, let alone 3 prospects for an Arroyo its a great deal - especially a lesser known quanity in Straily.

Regarding the kid who can hit triple digits, Injuries happen. Can't plan based off injuries. Chapman's pitched for awhile at those speeds and hasn't had TJ. He's a starter that many have pegged to go into relief. See: Aroldis Chapman, Raisel Iglesias.

Yes, Bailey was a bad contract. Like Votto (THAT'S NOT TO SAY HE'S A BAD PLAYER), Like BP. Sigh. Dick Williams took over a clogged toilet thanks to Walt Jocketty

Proven arms are not affordable, Reds could NEVER play that game - especially in their current financial crisis. even if they do, remember Eric Milton? that is the line of quality they could find and afford. Volquez and his 5.37 ERA signed for 11 MILLION. Closers signed $86 & $62 million dollar deals respectively this offseason. The FO made the wrong decision in paying Bailey > Cueto & Walt's return for Cueto was not nearly enough. We're in the for the long haul with Bailey, don't have money to sign anyone top dollar. Remember, Straily was a lucky Waiver Wire stab. (went to the team with the worst record)

part of success in a small market is to sell high before a player gets expensive, and invest in the young & controllable (arbitration, etc.). We were a MUCH better team in the second half, Straily was the main beneficiary. If your scouts, coaching staff see that & you go off the metrics - its a great sell high. Part of our problem for years is not doing a COMPLETE rebuild. You have to get very very young, and cheap. Look the Cubs opening day lineup 2 years ago. Bonifacio, Lake, SCastro, Rizzo, Olt, Wellington Castillo, Schierholtz, Darwin Barney. They HAD money, but knew that had to start over and get younger and fast. 28 means he'll be 31 and much more expensive by the time the Reds really hit their stride in prolly '19 or '20. Its just the nature of the business of baseball w/ no cap and small markets facing off against big markets in the same economic atmosphere w/ no revenue sharing.

Dick made the right move. Whether he keeps it up remains to be seen. (I don't have a lot of faith tbh but this deal gave me some hope)


    
This message has been edited by LoyaltyClause from IP address 208.102.87.83 on Jan 22, 2017 12:49 PM


 
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WhenPBSFreezesOver
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Gotta disagree here

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January 23 2017, 7:44 AM 

They sold high on Straily. He's probably not gonna be as effective as 2016 ever again. If there's a mistake here it's that they ended up partnering with the Marlins in this trade, and that they ended up with more pitching prospects.

But that's a lot better than what happened with Aroldis Chapman, where they got very little, the Yankees got a bundle, and then ended up with Chapman again.

The problem is the Reds have collected a bazillion young pitching "prospects", and only DeSclafani has really done anything... and even he's not a #1 starter. In this trade, instead of getting three prospects, two of whom are pitchers, it would have been ideal to get one of some organization's top young (A ball) position players.
Mike Brown has already abused their hearts and raided their wallets. He has been a one-man plague of locusts -- Gregg Doyel

 
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Re: The Dumb Reds are at it again

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February 1 2017, 12:05 AM 

One innings eater for another. Appears Reds are on the brink of signing Bronson Arroyo. If they can get anything from him at all, even time w/ the young kids in ST, I call it a win. One of my favorite Reds.


    
This message has been edited by LoyaltyClause from IP address 208.102.87.83 on Feb 1, 2017 12:06 AM


 
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bengalbear
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Re: The Dumb Reds are at it again

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February 1 2017, 9:16 AM 

The only concern is that he's 40 so how much does he have left. Not an overpowering pitcher but he might give the Reds a lift for a year providing he makes the team.

Forgot to mention he was out for 2 years recovering from Tommy John surgery. We'll see how he does in spring training.


    
This message has been edited by bengalbear from IP address 174.101.146.174 on Feb 1, 2017 9:20 AM


 
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