Table 1 Risk of an individual's dying (D) in any one year or developing an adverse response (A)
Term Used Quantitative Risk Range Example Measured Risk
High Greater than 1:100 A. Transmission to susceptible 1:1-1:2
household contacts of measles
or chickenpox
A. Transmission of HIV from 1:6
mother to child (Europe)
A. Gastrointestinal effects of 1:10-1:20
Antibiotics
Moderate 1:100-1:1000 D. Smoking 10 cigarettes per day 1:200
D. All natural causes, age 40 years 1:850
Low 1:1000-1:10000 D. All kinds of violence and 1:3300
Poisoning
D. Influenza 1:5000
D. Accident on road 1:8000 (1:15686)*
Very low 1:10000-1:100000 D. Leukemia 1:12000
(D. Accident on road) (1:15686)
D. Playing soccer 1:25000
D. Accident at home 1:26000
D. Accident at work 1:43000
D. Homicide 1:100000
Minimal 1:100000-1:1000000 D. Accident on railway 1:500000**
A. Vaccination-associated polio 1:1000000
Negligible Less than 1:10000000 D. Hit by lightning 1:10000000
D. Release of radiation by nuclear 1:10000000
power station
Source: On the State of the Public Health: The Annual Report of the Chief Medical Officer of the
Department of Health for the Year 1995 (London: Her Majesty's Stationery Office, 1996), p. 13.
http://www.safespeed.org.uk/risky-business.pdf
* The number is out of date. The most recent number is 1:15686, about half the number in Table 1, moving road accidents from the "low" to the "very low" category.
** Don't forget there is 20 or 30 times the mileage done by cars, and the railways are fenced off from the public!