Cass lives awfully close to where Charley is heading. I have been thinking about her all day and I hope she evacs or knows she's in a safe place.

Storm surge could be up to 17 feet if Charley goes cat 3 ...

eek! They'e telling almost a million people in FL to evacuate. What I want to know is where are thy going to go????

{{{Cass}}}

'shana

I second that!!!!! Please tell us that you and yours are safe!!!!

We love you, dear SisterFriend!

Shhh,
Whisper

Still waiting!

Mermaid

Anyone heard from Cass?

I emailed her last week at work and haven't heard back yet...

Maybe she's somewhere where access isn't available yet. I heard a lot of businesses are still closed up.

Keeping fingers crossed...
Mermaid

I called Cass this afternoon and they came thru just fine She said that they had more rain the next day than the day of the hurricane...

Good grief! Well, I'm glad to know she's well. My sister-I-L and brother-I-L did well through the storm also, with just a lot of rain. Thank goodness!

Thanks, Shana!!!

Shhh,
Whisper

Keep an eye on Frances tho... that's one ugly looking hurricane. It's already a Cat IV, soon to be a V and no one is sure where it will wind up. New Orleans after Key West?
Miami?
The whole east coast of Florida?
NC?

Too soon to tell, but next week is gonna be a doozy.

Frances in the Carribean, Gaston in NC/SC, and soon Hermonie (however that one is spelled!) near Bermuda...

^that was me

broke a contact lens earlier this week, having a wee bit o trouble seeing...

This is really a banner year! I pray everyone stays safe!

Shhh,
Whisper

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_5day.html



Florida doesn't look like a good place to be over Labor Day weekend!

'shana

eep didn't mean to bring the jpg in. Just send ya'll to two different forcast sites!

I actually think that's pretty cool. Thanks for the sites! I think I'll just stay here in the land of tornados...



Shhh,
Whisper

Frances is pro'bly roaring over Cass' house as we speak! {{{Cass}}}

I'll call her after the storm goes over.

Next on the list? Ivan. Ivan is now a Cat III storm, the fourth major hurricane of the season. Also the furthest south that nig a hurricane has ever been. It's far out there, but moving pretty fast. Forecasts are really only good for three days out, but the 5 day loks pretty scary for either Florida or the Gulf of Mexico. The emergency people in Florida are telling people there not to take down their hurricane shutters till after all danger from Ivan is past. We should know more late this week...

Ivan's NHC projected path-

Cat rating info

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.

Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricanes Allison of 1995 and Danny of 1997 were Category One hurricanes at peak intensity.


Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Bonnie of 1998 was a Category Two hurricane when it hit the North Carolina coast, while Hurricane Georges of 1998 was a Category Two Hurricane when it hit the Florida Keys and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.


Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Roxanne of 1995 and Fran of 1996 were Category Three hurricanes at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in North Carolina, respectively.


Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Luis of 1995 was a Category Four hurricane while moving over the Leeward Islands. Hurricanes Felix and Opal of 1995 also reached Category Four status at peak intensity.


Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Hurricane Mitch of 1998 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity over the western Caribbean. Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is one of the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclones of record.

Should be a Cat IV very soon. 125 mph sustained winds at 5 pm report.

Thanks so much for these updates on the hurricanes, {{{{{{{{{{{{{'shana}}}}}}}}}} Living in Florida must be a very, very hairy occupation! Be safe Cass, thinking of you, PPTT!

Hugs,
Kendaa

I'm glad I'm not boring ya'll!

I'll pass that along when I call her later. Or try to call her - the system hasn't left her area yet. It's huge and it's slow. And 5 million people don't have power...

Florida is #1 in hurricanes - because of where it is in relation to alot of stuff.

It's also number one in Major (Cat 3 hits) in the US, with Texas number two.

At least Texas doesn't stick out like Florida and we're big enough to really slow stuff down

Unfortunately, we are also able to get hit by the remnants of Pacific Typhoons that cross Mexico... rare tho.

And here in Austin only one Cat III has made it all the way up here - Carla in 1961. Yikes. Normally we just worry about stuff that blows in South of us because then we get floods and tornados.

I talked to Cass. They're all fine, lost power yesterday for 6 hours, but it's back up now.

She says to tell everyone hi and to send hugs {{{Kendaa}}}

Now just tell her to batten down the hatches for the next one! Boy, they just keep comin' like they're being shot out of one of those tennis ball machine- thingies!

Hold on, Cass!

Mermaid

Thank God, and thank you, 'Shana, for giving us these updates, especially the updates on Cass! My in-laws haven't had power since Saturday and probably won't for at least another week. Even with the slowing down, it did quite a bit of damage. Looks like Ivan might miss them now. fingers crossed and praying for Cubans

Shhh,
Whisper

I think the NHC is playing The Hokey Pokey with Ivan path.

Move em to the right

move em to the left

move em to the right

move em left..

and turn us all about!

My Aunt on the east coast of FL lucked out with Charley and Frances. Just south enough that she didn't get the worst but still went nuts hearing the wind for hours upon hours.

At the moment we're concerned about my friend's brother who had to go to Tobago a couple of days ago and is still there. Ivan just went by there (not a direct hit) but it's one of those poorer islands where news takes forever to come out.

Just saw a side by side sat pic of Ivan and Camille. Oh joy. They're twins...

The Meteorologists are all saying that if Ivan makes it to the Gulf of Mexico, it could be the worst storm of the season. But no one knows where it's going! Guess we'll have to wait till Friday to get a better idea.

Looks like we may get a visit from the Nephew in New Orleans again... altho I told him it's safer for him to go due north and then home to Dallas - coming here he has to follow the coast till he gets to Houston, then turns inland.. along with 10 million other people. But good news, gov of Mississippi has agreed to reverse lanes on the interstate, so if they evav NO, all the interstes will have both sides of the road leaving town. NO is the very very last place to be in a hurricane!

 

That's really bad! Keeping fingers crossed for everyone, especially Cass and her family, to be safe.

{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{{'shana}}}}}}}}}}}}}} Definitely not boring us!!! (And hope your eyes are doing heaps better!)

{{{Kendaa}}}

They're doin better or my brain is compensating better! I have my replacement contact lens (I broke one a couple of weeks ago) and that's all good. Right now I have a sinus infection, already been to doc, on antibiotics but it really hurts when I lay down so it's good I'm distacted on the computer!

Fom NHC:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 072350
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST TUE SEP 07 2004

...IVAN REGAINS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY...
CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT...THE
GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO...
AS WELL AS FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLUMBIA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

AT 645 PM AST...2245Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MARTINIQUE HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR MARTINIQUE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105
KM... WEST OF GRENADA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 385 MILES...620 KM...
EAST OF BONAIRE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IVAN IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. GRENADA REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 116 MPH...187
KM/HR WHEN THE EYE PASSED BY A FEW HOURS AGO.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED AS IVAN PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

not Galveston...
not Galveston...
not Galveston...

please...

Still too difficult to say.

 Looking at NHC 11 am map above, it looks like they think FL Panhandle. But in the discussion 11 am, they say:

 

IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND ARE CURRENTLY NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS. IN FACT...SOME RELIABLEMODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER RELIABLE GROUP MOVE THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ANDPRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ONA NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVANOVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BYDAY FIVE.

from NHC

[quote]8pm

IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...235 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. BONAIRE REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH A FEW
HOURS AGO.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.[/quote]

I feel soo bad for the people already affected abd the ones about to be.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20040908/sc_nm/weather_ivan_dc&cid=570&ncid=1112

MIAMI (Reuters) - Hurricane Ivan killed at least 20 people as it laid waste to the tiny spice island of Grenada, officials said on Wednesday as the storm swept through the Caribbean heading west.


Ivan, a dangerous Category 4 storm on a five-step scale of hurricane intensity, slammed into Grenada, a volcanic island of 90,000 people in the southeastern Caribbean on Tuesday, flattening or badly damaging homes and cutting power.


"Our diplomats are reporting that there are 20 confirmed deaths," said a State Department official in Washington.


The airport in the former British colony was closed and authorities were trying to open it for emergency flights, the official said.


With the island cut off, the extent of the damage began to emerge only on Wednesday.


A videotape shot from a British naval helicopter after the hurricane struck widespread destruction with buildings flattened, roofs ripped off houses and major flooding.


Grenada's capital, St. George's, was devastated. The island's emergency operations center was destroyed and the main hospital damaged.


"I can estimate about 85 percent devastation. All our major communication networks are down except the telephone service which is partially up and running," said Kenrick Fullerton, a member of parliament on the island.


"Our major institutions, some of them are destroyed including the prison, the official residence of the prime minister, a large amount of primary and secondary schools," he told a radio station in Trinidad.


The latest storm in a very busy Atlantic hurricane season, Ivan prompted storm alerts for the Dutch islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao, the north coast of Venezuela and Colombia's Guajira peninsula and parts of Haiti and Dominican Republic. Its winds hit 140 mph (225 kph) winds.


Britain's Royal Navy sent in medical teams from the HMS Richmond and an auxiliary vessel to help relief efforts, said a Navy spokesman, Cmdr. Richard Buckland, in London.


Grenada's prime minister, Keith Mitchell, whose residence was blown away, was moved to the Richmond.


HOMES, LIVELIHOODS FLATTENED


Grenada is a major nutmeg producer with an area of just 132 square miles. A local television journalist told a Trinidad radio station that one area of nutmeg production was completely destroyed.


"Here in (St. Andrew), the nutmeg industry in Grenada is gone. This is one of the nutmeg belts in the country and people are wondering about their livelihood," said Ejenny Mason. "Most of the houses have either been flattened or have lost their roofs."


Trinidad prepared to send two ships with relief supplies and troops to help rebuild on the island, which became known when the United States invaded it in 1983.


Ivan also swiped islands near Grenada in the southeastern Caribbean on Tuesday, killing two people. On the resort isle of Tobago, sister island to Trinidad, the storm killed a woman when a tree fell on her house, ripped off dozens of roofs and knocked out power.





In Barbados, a 75-year-old woman was killed as she searched for her cats during the storm, and 220 houses were damaged.

At 5 p.m. EDT (2200 GMT), Ivan was about 95 miles north-northeast of the island of Bonaire, at latitude 13.4 north and longitude 67.7 west, the National Hurricane Center (news - web sites) said. It was racing west-northwest at 17 mph (27 kph) on a course that would take it north of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao.

Ivan was expected to hit Jamaica on Friday and the hurricane center's longer-term forecast, with a wide margin for change, had the storm passing over Cuba during the weekend.

It was too soon to predict if the storm would become the third hurricane to hit Florida in a month. Hurricane Charley slammed into southwest of Florida on Aug. 13, followed by Hurricane Frances, which hit the east coast over the weekend. (Additional reporting by Linda Hutchinson-Jafar in Port of Spain, Trinidad; Pascal Fletcher in Caracas, Saul Hudson in Washington and Jane Sutton in Miami)

2 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 160 MPH...255
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A RARE CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY.

Well, the NHC still has Ivan heading for Florida after slamming Jamaica and Cuba, but other forecasters aren't sold on that. So the whole Gulf of Mexico  has to keep track of Ivan.

Hopefully Ivan will lose intensity soon, right now he looks too much like Camille to me.

Florida Keys evac in progress.

From NHC

[quote=From NHC latest bulletin]

PM AST THU SEP 09 2004
 
...NOAA HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS THAT IVAN CONTINUES
TO BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...HEADING FOR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A
NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...580 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.
 
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON
FRIDAY.
 
IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES

.[/quote]

from NOAA - the green island that you see Ivan bumping on the left is Hispaniola, home to Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The green land on the right is part of Columbia. In South America....

He's a big 'un!

<blockquote>

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 11, 2004

 

...Ivan regains category five hurricane strength...heading toward
the Cayman Islands and western Cuba...
 
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. On
this track...Ivan should be moving near or over the Cayman Islands
on Sunday. 
 
A reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 165 mph...270 km/hr...with higher gusts.
This makes Ivan an extremely dangerous category five hurricane on
the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next 24 hours.
 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.
 
Minimum central pressure recently estimated by a reconnaissance
plane was 914 mb...26.99 inches. Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center
makes landfall in Cuba. </blockquote>
 
A seriously big storm... number six on the all time intense hurricanes in the Western Hemisphere. An idea? It's currently more intense than Andrew ever got and bigger sizewise too.
And... they're still not sure where it is going to land in the US. Possibly anywhere from the LA/MS stae line eastward. Worst case? New Orleans, which is currently just outside the western edge of the 'cone of possibility'
 
More later!

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sorry about breakin the board! I can't edit to take out a "center" option that must have pasted in...

Anyway, in further news, the NHC still say Panhandle of FL. They also say Ivan will turn more northwest in the next 12-24 hours. They have been saying that literally for days and it hasn't happened yet.

Ivan is 150 mph, strong Cat IV.

He skirted Jamaica and Grand Cayman Island, but he's so big that both places have been hit hard.
The latest from the Cayman Islands is

Reports from ham radio operators and
the Cayman meteorological service indicate that power is out
throughout the island...numerous buildings have lost their
roofs...water up to 2 feet deep covers the Airport runway...and
water as high as 5 feet is flowing through many homes.

Ivan is not supposed to hit Havana, a good thing. People ther have been told that if they live on the fourth floor or over to move downstairs - buildings in Havana have been known to collapse in thunderstorms...

Oil companies have started evacuating the offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico- most of these are off shore of Texas and Louisiana. It takes a while to do that, so they can't wait.

Early reports from Boloxi MS are that there is a shortage of bottled water and generators- either sent to FL or bought by FL residents and taken back to FL. Panama City Beach people are starting to board up and gas up.

A couple of comments from people in New Orleans- if it looks likely to go there, they won't bother to board up- they'll just leave. Smart. No one wants to go thru a big hurricane in NO. It isn't survivable.

At least the Keys look like they might be spared this time around. Hope so! What a nightmare!

Shhh,
Whisper

11 pm advisory

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

Ivan is not only intense, he's getting immense! I didn't know storms this strong could get this wide... think of an ice skater... the faster they want to rotate the closer in they hold their arms...

This thing is so big that if it hit the Texas coast, we will have tropical force winds in Austin!!! Yikes! That was an example, not a forecast. BTW ... I'll be in Dallas from Wed- Sat, so I may not have internet access.

They are forcasting 25 ft storm surge for parts of Cuba. I'm concerned more about Cancun... they don't seem to be doing anything to prepare....

OK... communities from New Orleans to the Big Bend of Florida are having evac meetings in the am. This could be an unprecedented evac...

New Orleans would take a minimum of 72 hours to evacuate- it's like the Fl Keys - limited access that will get impassable before a hurricane would even hit.

Ivan could be more intense than Camille overnight. I'm now officially weirded out for comparing Ivan and Camille!

Ivan hopefully will get weaker before landfall...

Well, Ivan's still a 4 and barrelling towards the Northern Gulf Coast.
Looks really bad for New Orleans.

Just glad I told the Nephew to get his rear in gear yesterday.... he and
his friends got out ahead of the people deluge...

This one is a terrible one from what we've been seeing on the news. Hoping everyone in its path stays safe and OUT of its path. Wish the same could be said for Cuba etc.

Thanks for the updates 'shana - it sounds horrific!

Thank you for the updates. I do not have cable, so no weather channel for me. I have been coming here for the best and latest information, 'shana!

I don't have cable either... the 'net has better info anyway.

Here's something I read today at http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=519&e=4&u=/ap/hurricane_ivan

New Orleans, the nation's largest city below sea level, is particularly vulnerable to flooding, and Mayor Ray Nagin was among the first to urge residents to get out while they can. The city's Louis Armstrong Airport was ordered closed Tuesday night.


Up to 10 feet below sea level in spots, New Orleans is a bowl-shaped depression that sits between the half-mile-wide Mississippi River and Rhode Island-size Lake Pontchartrain, relying on a system of levees, canals and huge pumps to keep dry.


The city has not taken a major direct hit since Betsy in 1965, when an 8- to 10-foot storm surge submerged parts of the city in 7 feet of water. Betsy, a Category 3 storm, was blamed for 74 deaths in Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida.


Experts said Ivan could be worse, sending water pouring over the levees, flooding to the rooftops and turning streets into a toxic brew of raw sewage, gas and chemicals from nearby refineries.


The mayor said that he would "aggressively recommend" people evacuate, but that it would difficult to order them to do so, because at least 100,000 in the city rely on public transportation and would have no way to leave. In addition, he said 10,000 people were in town for conventions, and there was nowhere for many of them to go except high floors in their hotels.


By midday Tuesday, traffic on Interstate 10, the major hurricane route out of New Orleans, was at a near standstill, and state police turned the interstate west of the city into a one-way route out. U.S. Highway 59, the old major route between New Orleans and Baton Rouge, also was jammed.

I'm so glad The Nephew listened to me n his mom and left yesterday with his friends!

Here's a link to an article about the effect of a large hurricane on NO

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/?/washingaway/

And Ivan, after hitting land, will blast inland and do alot of damage for
days.

And wait! There's more! Jeanne has arrived! sigh. I'll worry about Jeanne
(and Karl and Lisa) after Ivan is inland. But here's the Jeanne possibility
map: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_5day.html She
will be a hurricane tommorrow. Could go out to sea, hi the East Coast or
Florida or come into the Gulf and go for Houston. Who knows!

There are MORE of them coming? I dunno, but things are a bit scary at present. These unrelenting hurricanes, Mt. Etna in Sicily starting to do some serious stirring, Mauna Loa (sp?) in Hawaii, also said to be getting ready to erupt, major hailstorm in Sydney last week (thankfully little damage this time, although it looked like snow everywhere)...these can't be good signs

And Japan has been hit by SEVEN typhoons this year plus several 6+
earthquakes...

Karl and Lisa aren't named storms yet... but those are the next two names.

And I'm not even looking at the Pacific where there's a Cat 4 Javier off
the coast of Baja California. He and Isis both will hopefully go out to sea
and stir up the fishies..

but, National Geographic Magazine just had an article about this crazy weather trend going on WORLDWIDE and the connection to global warming. Yes, I believe it is a reality and not scientific nonsence that our wonderful government officials would have us believe. This past summer Europe saw clusters of tornados which is beyond unusual since my Mom (who grew up in Germany) said in all her life there, there have NEVER been tornados and in one of her German magazines there was a picture of a town shoveling out under 2-3 feet of HAIL!!

What's up with that? I'll tell you what. When we continue to dump billions of pounds of crap into the air and water and cut down every tree and shrub (nature's air filters and oxygen producers people!) to build more and more homes for more and more people because we insist on breeding like fruitflies and religion and governments thwarts ANY type of population control, our actions will come back and bite us in the ass sooner than you think.

OK, I think I'm done doing my enviromental rant... for now...
Mermaid

(And New Orleans is built in a depression 10 feet below sea level between a lake and a river... what doofwad thought THAT was a grand idea?? Sheesh!)

^ It was accessable to ships. Same reason Galveston was built where it is,
why it got so big and why it was almost wiped out in the 1900 hurricane.

Jeanne is onshore in Puerto Rico.

Here's the latest pic of Ivan

Yep, I totally agree with you, 1000% In fact, I just got the issue of National Geographic dealing with global warming yesterday and am halfway through that very article because, really, I think we've all but destroyed our planet home and now She's starting to hit back. I think it was a shameful thing that the US and Australia were two of the countries refusing to sign the Kyoto protocol. Mind you, at this point, I doubt that even the Kyoto protocol could undo the harm we've done to the planet.

Well, I don't agree that we are killing the earth via global warming, but I won't argue the point because we all feel very strongly our own way. I would never have subjected our country to the Kyoto protocol, and I'm glad it was not signed. As for America, there are now more trees in the country than there ever have been because of irrigation where previously trees could not grow, as well as environmental protection of forest areas. Mother nature, in the form of forest fires, volcanos, dust storms... conspires to pollute massively. People (in the USA, I know), at least, are doing their darndest to make their contributions smaller. Cars, for example, are 90% cleaner running than they were in the 70s. This was done without the hand-tying regulations of the KP. Okay, I said I wouldn't argue the point, so I better stop! LOL!

Shhh,
Whisper

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

Guess Ivan just wants to visit Texas. Either that or he wants to rain on all the people that ran away from him last week.....

The solution is to come visit us! We're having beautiful weather! Sunny, 80s, dry... it's lovely! Come in out of the rain!

Shhh,
Whisper

Dad-gum!

I think I'm right in the path now.

Let's hope that thing doesn't stall like Allison did...

((Tabby)))

Good luck!!! Be safe

hugs
fayee

For petesakes, just move outta there!

My guess Florida at this point is like a giant wet sponge! So what's the humidity now? 500%??

And another on the way... great, that's just great!

Please, everyone stay safe!

Mermaid

eepp... Cass is hopefully hunkered down cause Jeanne is coming onshore fast and furious..

Hurricanes, volcanos...you guys are having a torrid time of it right now!

Hiya Kendaa et al...

No relation to any tropical system but we had a hum-dinger of a storm today. Heard it was coming and left school early. You never saw a fat old lady galloping to the parking lot at full speed like I did today! Big cold raindrops falling. By the time I got home (1 mile) it was a full blown storm with wind, hail, and even a little twister. Took out the apartment fence and sent a tree down on the covered parking which missed my mother's Blazer by a few inches. If she had not been visiting, it would have been my extended cab pickup in the covered parking place and my truck is so long it sticks out from under and would have been hit. Lightning strikes all around. One hit the church down the block and I heard it had a fire... saw the fire engines and smelled smoke but saw no flames. Watched the news and nothing about the storm in Friendswood, just news about the Astros!

Just thought I'd share a bit of Texas weather

I forgot to mention that the rain came in around the windows... how does that happen?

((((Tabby))))

Glad you were sfae with all that excitement!!

hugs
fayee

Sounds like never a dull moment where you are, Tabby. Mind you, world weather is going NUTS, isn't it?

Thanks, y'all. I guess I spoke a bit too soon. We wene not on the 6:00 news, but the tornado in our little town was the lead story on all four networs on the 10:00 news.

{{{Tabby}}}

Glad you're ok

I've seen water come in around the windows here = it happens when the wind carries the water horizontally really hard and the water gets in under the seals.

It's forecast to be a wet wet week here. Get out your oars Tabby!